MUSCAT: The severity of heatwaves in the Sultanate of Oman is projected to increase under all emissions scenarios, according to the country’s third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) report submitted to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The report warns that heatwaves are likely to become more frequent and intense, with the number of heatwave days projected to increase by 20 to 40 per cent by 2050 under a high-emissions scenario.
On Tuesday, temperatures hovered around 45°C in several parts of the Sultanate of Oman, including Ibri, Bidiyah, Samail, Mahdha, Fahud, Al Buraimi, Muscat, Nizwa and Haima.
“Heatwaves and rising temperatures are already affecting Oman’s human health, agriculture and infrastructure through increased heat stress, higher cooling demand and grid loads, and potential impacts on crops and livestock,” the report said.
Combined with rainfall variability and water scarcity in Oman’s groundwater-dependent arid environment, these trends could pose growing risks to socio-economic stability and essential services.
Evidence of extreme heat is already visible. In June 2018, Quriyat recorded a minimum temperature of 42.6°C over a 24-hour period, highlighting the intensification of heat-stress conditions.
Increasing heat extremes pose significant risks to public health, outdoor labour productivity, agriculture, livestock and energy systems due to rising cooling demand and peak electricity loads.
Projections under higher-emissions pathways indicate a further increase in the frequency, duration and severity of extremely hot days and warm nights.
Oman’s public health sector is also increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards. Flooding, intense rainfall, heatwaves and associated disruptions to essential services could increase injuries and heat-related illnesses, aggravate respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, and raise the risk of vector-borne diseases.
Dust and blowing-dust events represent another growing regional concern, with national meteorological awareness materials highlighting their direct health effects, including an increase in respiratory illnesses.
Under high-emissions pathways, these risks are expected to intensify. Oman’s First Biennial Transparency Report cites SSP5-8.5 projections indicating that temperatures could approach or exceed human survivability thresholds under certain conditions by 2100.
Daily maximum temperature anomalies could reach approximately 6.5°C, while peak temperatures in Al Dhahirah could rise to around 52.06°C. The governorate could also experience about 110.65 additional days annually with temperatures of 45°C or above, with comparable increases projected for Al Dakhiliyah, Al Sharqiyah and Dhofar.
The projections underline the need to prioritise protective measures for vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly and people with pre-existing health conditions. These measures include heat-health preparedness, effective risk communication and stronger health surveillance and response systems.
The third NDC serves as Oman’s primary climate policy document, outlining the country’s targets and mitigation measures through 2035. It sets out the national approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening climate adaptation and resilience, and advancing sustainable development in line with Oman Vision 2040 and the goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
The targets are benchmarked against the base year of 2024, when Oman’s total greenhouse gas emissions stood at approximately 93.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
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